Reports

The Central Banks dilemma: normalize or cue the revolution

Juliette Declercq 29 November 2018

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Powell: the best friend Trump does not know he has?

Juliette Declerq 6 November 2018

Yes, the Fed is deliberately trying to slow the US economy down but it is the best way to avoid recession over the next election…

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As stocks meddle in US politics

Juliette Declerq 15 October 2018

… the President may bend but not break

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The hawks are gathering ... and hunting in a pack

Juliette Declercq 26 September 2018

Use the Fed’s hawkish stance tonight to sell US$ ......

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EM, no resolution before capitulation

Juliette Declercq 6 September 2018

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
The Sun Also Rises. Ernest Hemingway 1926.

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While the markets are away, the Central Banks will play

Juliette Declerq 9 August 2018

A paradigm shift towards slower growth and more hawkish monetary policy-making… China bucks the trend with increased policy activism...

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Enough water left in lake Powell to cool the US economy?

Juliette Declerq 6 July 2018

As liquidity dries up and a global slowdown ensues, EM remain most vulnerable…...

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“What if” – will Trump be re-elected?

Juliette Declercq 13 June 2018

Will our hero deliver higher wages? How can the Fed help?...

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Market forces awakening in Europe?

Juliette Declerq 29 May 2018

It would be an error of judgment for the ECB to stand in the way......

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“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore...”

Juliette Declercq 30 April 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQLNS3HWfCM...

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How long can the fake economy resist?

Juliette Declercq 30 March 2018

Michigan: “Households in top 1/3 income tier (the ones spending and owning stocks ...) cited significantly greater concerns with government economic policy”...

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Trump's Trade War -- or just an FX Wolf in sheep's clothing?

Juliette Declercq 15 March 2018

First punch them in the face... then negotiate a weak US$...

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Powell’s Fed in March: in like a lion and out like a lamb?

Juliette Declercq 27 February 2018

Is there really a choice?...

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2018 Black Monday: Investment Opportunity?

Juliette Declercq 6 February 2018

The "Big Short Vol" is finally taking its toll, beware a prolonged equity sell-off as it could become self-fulfilling......

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2018: the year of the consumer...

Juliette Declercq 23 January 2018

Finally pricing out the post-GFC trauma?...

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Sorry Donald, it’s not you: it’s all about the US$...

Juliette Declercq 12 January 2018

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Fed hiking cycle: How much is too much?

Juliette Declercq 5 December 2017

Stay on front-end curve alert!...

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A dangerous time to be complacent about the Fed’s shakeout

Juliette Declercq 21 November 2017

Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure....

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Animal spirits – Some stirring, some hibernating...

Juliette Declercq 4 November 2017

Watch leverage indicators like a hawk...

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Global growth at the whim of the Politburo

Juliette Declercq 12 October 2017

Is ISM delusional? ... the widening gap between perception and reality...

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Sintra's spirit lives on...

Juliette Declercq 27 September 2017

Until inflation expectations start plunging......

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Harvey: will the US economy break like the oak or bend like the reed?

Juliette Declercq 5 September 2017

Washington decides...

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The macro case for a weaker USD remains compelling

Juliette Declercq 10 August 2017

Don’t risk missing the 2nd part of JDI’s 2017 best trade: Long EUR and short USD......

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Is the 2% target a holy grail?

Juliette Declercq 26 July 2017

Or an accident of history......

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Simmering in Sintra

Juliette Declercq 6 July 2017

But they are only cooking up higher rates......

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The beginning of the end of inflation targeting...

Juliette Declercq 28 June 2017

...Is not a dramatic departure from decades of monetary policy setting...

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The safe-haven investment may not be where you think it is...

Juliette Declercq 15 June 2017

Inclusive capitalism “is about delivering a basic social contract comprised of relative equality of outcomes; equality of opportunity; and fairness across generations”, Mark Carney, BoE....

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Contrarian view: The yield bottom may still be ahead of us...

Juliette Declercq 30 May 2017

The fiscal stimulus considered by Trump’s administration will not deliver the productivity shock necessary to allow the US to snap out of the growth purgatory...

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A risk-free world?

Juliette Declercq 10 May 2017

Keeping my fingers crossed that the above title marks an inflexion point in volatility!...

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2017 second best trade: Long EUR? (After long SX5E)

Juliette Declercq 26 April 2017

If voting could change anything, it would have been forbidden a long time ago (Coluche, a late French humorist who had great political ambitions...)...

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With a lack of progress on fiscal stimulus, Trump decides to take the helm of the Fed?

Juliette Declercq 13 April 2017

Back to growth purgatory......

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Red string of fate ties the US to China

Juliette Declercq 27 March 2017

Is the Fed truly dovish?...

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Herd instinct at highs following Trump’s election

Juliette Declercq 10 March 2017

But growth and reflation may hit a wall in Q2......

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My weaker USD call has been received with suspicion

Juliette Declercq 22 February 2017

This report delves into the reasons to sell USD with conviction......

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The USD should stay on its knees short-term

7 February 2017

Running out of reasons to avoid Emerging Markets......

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Trump trade: Buy the election, sell the inauguration?

Juliette Declercq 24 January 2017

Sounds "great" but it is much more complicated ......

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Long live the American Dream

Juliette Declercq 12 January 2017

Optimism – more than any policy announcements – is what will revive the macroeconomic cycle...

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How hot would you like your economy ?

Juliette Declercq 14 December 2016

The high pressure economy has never deliberately been experimented, how far is the Fed really willing to go ?...

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2017 best trade: Long European equities ?

Juliette Declercq 6 December 2016

Being bullish European stocks does not require to be bullish the Euro project......

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The super bullish scenario is unfolding

Juliette Declercq 23 November 2016

Little did we know Trump was the one who would be CO-operating with the BoJ ......

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"Trump will get the job done" ... Will he?

Juliette Declercq 14 November 2016

Will he?...

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Reflation or Recession ?

Juliette Declercq 9 November 2016

All eyes are on the beneficial effects of a commodity bounce but the effective tax on the consumer may bite ......

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A snapshot of the US economy

Juliette Declercq 19 October 2016

Is the glass half full or half empty?...

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The end of QE... But not the end of the world...

Juliette Declercq 10 October 2016

“Governments know that the ECB stimulus will not be forever.” (Draghi)...

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A small step for markets but a giant leap for the monetary world

Juliette Declercq 26 September 2016

Stay constructive on risk despite the BoJ-induced confusion ......

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Lost in translation...

Juliette Declercq 19 September 2016

The steepenening temptation returns & QE gets globally priced out...

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US economy on the edge?

Juliette Declercq 5 September 2016

Don't push it......

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Should we fear Jackson Hole

Juliette Declercq 22 August 2016

Far from explicitly adopting "optimum control" the Fed's reaction function remains one of "Stop and Go". It is soon time for Go, once again......

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Central Banks guarantee a prolongation of the status quo …

Juliette Declercq 17 August 2016

Expect the liquidity wave to continue to trickle into all asset classes including Emerging Markets (high yielders favoured over the Asian low yielders)...

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No paradigm shift toward reflation … But deflationary tail risks have abated

Juliette Declercq 25 July 2016

In the last report on July 5th, I discussed at length the possibility of Central Banks passing the baton to the Finance Ministries as a main threat to my positive view on long end fixed income at a time when it had largely become consensus......

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Central Banks are NOT helping ...

Juliette Declercq 5 July 2016

Secular stagnation is settling in but becoming consensus ......

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Seeing the wood for the trees ...

Juliette Declercq 22 June 2016

Let us all be clear, I have no crystal ball and although I do believe that remain will be the outcome of the referendum; it is also what 90% portfolio managers I speak to believe, which really puts us in a bit of a pickle as to the best way to strategize and monetise a view over the event....

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Too early to talk about recession, but high time we started talking about Fed easing …

Juliette Declercq 14 June 2016

The long bond has continued to be the A trade, over the past week with the USD still caught between flight to safety flows and a less promising domestic macroeconomic backdrop......

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It pays to take risk ... re-entering short USD

Juliette Declercq 6 June 2016

My view has been more neutral on the USD recently after a successful foray into longs (closed after the hawkish fed minutes) and I have been thinking long and hard about it today. I want to re-enter short USD and decided to pick CAD ......

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A tug of war between the medium term and short term outlook …

Juliette Declercq 3 June 2016

Position for an extended purgatory time as the mediocre growth backdrop could last an eternity ......

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Back to the future … or not ?

Juliette Declercq 26 May 2016

As opposed to Dec 2015, the concerted Q1 monetary stimulus and synchronized mini credit cycles offer the ideal window of opportunity for a Fed hike - Risk should remain supported into the June or July hike....

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Not much in the way of further USD gains ...

Juliette Declercq 16 May 2016

It is tempting to take profit on long USD initiated on the last piece following a great run but the Fed is not likely to show its dovish hand again in the short-term, which means that the trade still has legs for reasons we expose in today's report......

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Calling the end of the USD countertrend

Juliette Declercq 5 May 2016

I took profit in all USD short versus risk-on FX position last Friday on a view that all my long term price targets had been hit in EM FX and that EUR and JPY strength would cause a VAR shock. I think it is fair to say that this VAR shock has happened. In the process, USD hit a cyclical low before storming back on Tuesday and marking impressive reversal signals (see chart above). A clear inflection point (it is no surprise that it was on the same day die-hard USD bulls started to soften their stance and on the day the controversial Shanghai accord was finally confirmed as part of the new treasury FX report) that most likely marks the end of the 2016 USD bear trend theme that I have been riding successfully since January....

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How long can the China “drug high” last ?

Juliette Declercq 28 April 2016

With the perception that China's long awaited and much analyzed economic disaster is still in the making, it has been difficult to embrace fully the market implications of the current debtfueled growth bounce....

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US real yields and the resulting global liquidity drive risk

Juliette Declercq 18 April 2016

Global assets have danced over the past 18months to the rhythm of the perceived tail risks around the 2 largest global growth engine: China and the US...

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A Central Bank regime change?

Juliette Declerque 11 April 2016

The Fed is the only reflationary game left in town before the BoJ and ECB go to the next stage, but wouldn’t you rather have the Fed have your back than the BoJ and ECB ?...

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